Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.040508 1.093727 1.148633 1.209618 1.275587 1.344932 1.423515
2025-12-28 0.965237 1.041986 1.124426 1.219990 1.328262 1.447766 1.590540
2026-01-04 0.904649 0.994014 1.092641 1.210383 1.348210 1.505817 1.701695
2026-01-11 0.870395 0.970438 1.083366 1.221580 1.388001 1.584336 1.837207
2026-01-18 0.837430 0.944947 1.068597 1.223134 1.413743 1.644799 1.951971
2026-01-25 0.819991 0.935799 1.071364 1.244238 1.462537 1.734389 2.107594
2026-02-01 0.782951 0.900903 1.040775 1.221814 1.454482 1.750218 2.166421
2026-02-08 0.745060 0.863100 1.004575 1.189965 1.431767 1.744494 2.194126
2026-02-15 0.720755 0.840817 0.986326 1.179497 1.435430 1.772668 2.268974
2026-02-22 0.703459 0.826382 0.977022 1.179641 1.452407 1.818794 2.371280
2026-03-01 0.679947 0.803178 0.955535 1.162621 1.445011 1.830310 2.423128
2026-03-08 0.651548 0.772831 0.923780 1.130588 1.415386 1.808685 2.423372
2026-03-15 0.633578 0.755892 0.909551 1.122451 1.419765 1.837519 2.505470
2026-03-22 0.623829 0.749232 0.908474 1.131998 1.449302 1.904377 2.652204
2026-03-29 0.607595 0.733514 0.894757 1.123412 1.452232 1.931627 2.737155
2026-04-05 0.599586 0.728242 0.894618 1.133423 1.482196 2.000857 2.896480
2026-04-12 0.588867 0.718973 0.888664 1.134812 1.499241 2.050831 3.027132
2026-04-19 0.585120 0.718810 0.894942 1.153664 1.543030 2.145140 3.243894
2026-04-26 0.567866 0.699935 0.874884 1.133632 1.526549 2.141413 3.282868
2026-05-03 0.548500 0.677734 0.849622 1.105144 1.495782 2.112584 3.272696
2026-05-10 0.536559 0.665359 0.837684 1.095771 1.494252 2.131833 3.354658
2026-05-17 0.528369 0.657890 0.832355 1.095901 1.507496 2.176341 3.489104
2026-05-24 0.515505 0.643669 0.817107 1.080652 1.495521 2.177002 3.536541